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Industry NewsChina to Halt Hazmats
Warehousing Grows, SlowlyOne of the more resilient links in the global supply chain - the warehouse - may finally be feeling the effects of the economic slowdown and soaring fuel prices. Revenue growth among at North Americas estimated 8,000 commercial warehouses grew 7.7 percent in 2007, compared with 9.7 percent in 2006 and 9.5 percent in 2005, according to Armstrong & Associates "Warehousing in North America - 2008." Though those figures would still be estimable for many industries, the trend in warehousing is away from the double-digit annual growth rates seen during much of the 1990s and early 2000s. Further, rising energy costs, looming regulations and a deteriorating freight economy are forcing shippers and their service providers to dig deeper to offset rising costs while maintaining service quality, making superior growth forecasts that much harder to support.
But while warehouse operators dont take the brunt of the ongoing cost pressure, their customers - manufacturers, retailers, truckers and other carriers - feel it acutely. For the warehousing industry as a whole, Armstrong said, "Weve reached a level in this business where the third-party logistics providers have very good capabilities. And what were seeing is an expansion of those capabilities with a better IT base all the time. Between this maturing North American warehouse market and the weakening economy, "Overall there hasnt been any significant movement in pricing," he said. Anderson said warehouse operators with 3PL capabilities are trying to differentiate themselves to earn higher margins. Theyll bid to take over truck brokerage or offer load consolidation to keep the customers costs down and earn themselves a bigger portion of that business, Anderson said. Over time, Armstrong and Anderson say, a new high-cost transportation environment will force shippers to make distribution network changes that could benefit warehouse operators. Pending regulations on everything from customs to fuel and air quality will intensify the pressure. (Source: Traffic World) TSA Announces Certified Cargo Screening ProgramThe Transportation Security Administration is working feverously to screen all passenger plane cargo by Aug. 3, 2010, in accordance with "Implementing the Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007." Fifty percent of such cargo must be screened by Feb. 3, 2009. The system must, "provide a level of security commensurate with the level of security for the screening of checked baggage." TSA requires the screening of all cargo at the piece level prior to boarding a passenger aircraft. To assist in achieving the requirements under the Act, TSA is designing a program known as the Certified Cargo Screening Program. Allowing the CCSP to be included as a tool, as part of the risk based, multi-level screening arsenal, makes sense because it balances the need for security on passenger planes while meeting the needs of the shipping public. It could help avoid significant handling delays at airlines where all screening currently takes place and where existing space and labor constraints will be exacerbated under the full screening mandate.
The program is open to 3PLs, manufacturing facilities and distribution centers if their facility directly tenders cargo to a freight forwarder or air carrier. These entities must adhere to stringent security requirements set by the TSA that include onsite validations, periodic inspections, maintaining strict chain of custody measures and the requirement to screen cargo at the piece level. Shippers volunteering for this program will become regulated parties subject to strict TSA oversight. Forwarders are also eligible to apply, but for a price. Unlike shippers, they will be required to purchase TSA-certified technology to perform the task. Forwarders will also bear the significant tab of training employees to operate the machinery. Although the agency has not released an official cost, some believe it could reach up to $150,000 per facility with no government funding assistance available to reimburse costs. That is a big sum for most small to medium sized forwarders competing on characteristically razor thin industry margins. Securing aircraft and air cargo comes with a hefty price tag, but the government has a responsibility to provide safe, secure transportation systems for the American traveling public. However, government leaders seem to have lost sight of the costs and the governments role in securing the homeland. Screening all air cargo under the new legislation tops $3.6 billion, according to the Government Accountability Office. Yet, the White House is requesting just $106 million to perform the task. That it is a volunteer program should not detract from the serious economic repercussions posed to those who are forced to opt out. Those companies choosing not to become CCSFs are likely to face bottlenecks at the airport, causing significant handling delays as airlines screen their shipments. It is critical that Congress addresses this issue promptly to ensure consumers and businesses are not faced with a competitive disadvantage which has the potential to put forwarders out of business. The CCSP has the potential to be a progressive tool by having the shipping public help make skies safer. However, forwarders should not have to assume the full financial burden for an inherently governmental function. (Source: Air Cargo World) OECD Cuts Growth Forecasts
Freight Index UnchangedAfter a record decline in March, the U.S. Freight Transportation Services Index was unchanged in April. Combining statistics for trucking, railroad and intermodal freight, barges, pipelines and air cargo, the Department of Transportations Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported that April was the third consecutive month without any growth. While February and April were flat, March saw the largest decline since August 2006, offsetting Januarys increase, which was the largest in two years. At 109.4 in April, the freight TSI was up 1.3 percent since its recent low of 108 in September but down 3.3 percent from its peak of 113.1 reached in November 2005. The bare 0.1 percent increase over April of 2007 follows two consecutive April-to-April declines. (Source: JoC) Fuel Puts Airlines in Red
Oil Fuels Trade Deficit
A key factor was record-high crude oil prices, which climbed $6.98 to $96.81 per barrel in April, the second-highest increase on record. Imports from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and other members of OPEC totaled $20.9 billion, also a record. Imports of goods and services topped the previous high mark at $216.4 billion, and showed their biggest one-month gain since November 2002. Along with oil, autos and capital goods recovered from a drop in March. The trade gap with China increased by nearly 26 percent to $20.2 billion, as imports surged and U.S. exports slumped. U.S. Airlines Drop CapacityTwo of the largest airlines in the United States will dramatically reduce the size of their fleets and staffs in the coming year. United Airlines said it would remove 100 planes from its mainline fleet and lay off 1,400 to 1,600 employees. Continental Airlines said it would let go of 67 planes and 3,000 jobs. The cuts at United involve 17 percent of the airlines capacity in an effort to bolster pricing and reduce costs as rising jet fuel prices are expected to add $3 billion to expenses this year. The company expects to retire 30 previously announced Boeing 737s and another 50 by the end of the year. Twenty more planes will go out of service by the end of 2009.
Continentals cuts will reduce mainline capacity 11 percent in the face of jet fuel price increases of as much as 75 percent over the past year. At current capacity, the airline projects fuel cost increases of $2.3 billion in the next year. "These record fuel costs have fundamentally shifted the economics of our business. At these fuel prices, a large number of our flights are losing money, and Continental needs to react to this changed marketplace," said Larry Kellner, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Jeff Smisek, President, in an employee bulletin.
United and Continental are the latest to cut capacity in a market that is only recently recovering from multiple bankruptcies. In March, Delta Air Lines said it would cut 2,000 jobs and cut capacity 10 percent. American Airlines last month said it would cut domestic capacity 11 percent and eliminate more than 1,000 jobs. (Source: Air Cargo World)
IATA Predicts Heavy Industry LossesThe International Air Transport Association (IATA) revised its industry financial forecast for 2008 significantly downwards to a loss of US$2.3 billion. The forecast uses a consensus oil price of $106.5 per barrel (Brent) crude. This is a swing of $6.8 billion from the previous forecasted industry profit of $4.5 billion that was announced in March and based on an average oil price of $86 per barrel.
“We also need to take a reality check. Despite the consensus of experts on the oil price, today’s oil prices make the $2.3 billion loss look optimistic. For every dollar that the oil price increases, we add $1.6 billion to costs. If we see $135 oil for the rest of the year, losses could be $6.1 billion. “The situation has changed dramatically in recent weeks. Oil skyrocketing above $130 per barrel has brought us into uncharted territory. Add in the weakening global economy and this is yet another perfect storm. “Oil is changing everything. There are no easy answers. In the last six years, airlines improved fuel efficiency by 19 per cent and reduced non-fuel unit costs by 18 per cent. There is no fat left. To survive this crisis, even more massive changes will be needed quickly. Air transport is a catalyst for $3.5 trillion in business and 32 million jobs. This is an extraordinary crisis with the potential to re-shape the industry with impacts throughout the global economy. Governments, industry partners and labour must deliver change,” said Bisignani. (Source: Air Cargo News) OAG Global AirFreight Forecast 2008-2017The economic climate in U.S. and the top global air freight markets over the next five years are facing uncertainty. The rising cost of operations will force the industry to make tough decisions that will impact air freight capacity on the global level. As a result, FTKs may grow slower than forecast if the U.S. recession materializes or exceeds forecasted levels. Meaning, FTKs may not return to the recent growth trajectory until after 2011-2012. As the U.S. economy rebounds, long-term prospects remain positive. Overall global economic expansion coupled with developing countries becoming sources of both manufacturing capacity as well as consumer wealth, and the implementation of efficiency measures by companies will help to make air freight an important component of the global supply chain. Overall, the OAG 2008-2017 forecast is aggressive. High single-digit to low double-digit growth is forecast as globalization continues, China matures and businesses explore better ways to manufacturer products. Air freight will continue to grow as businesses exploit economies of scale and cost rationalization in their supply chains, while also seeking to expand their consumer base.
(Source: Air Cargo World)
Weak Peak Container Traffic Forecast
Air Cargo Traffic Surges
Price fixing on Cargo ShipmentsThe European Shippers Council (ESC) has joined the class action in ongoing litigation against air carriers accused of engaging in a price-fixing scheme. The class action started two years ago in the U.S. by a number of airfreight customers against a group of flagship airlines for what they alleged was a violation of U.S. and EU competition laws. The complaint alleged that those airlines conspired to fix prices on costs associated with airfreight worldwide. If the class action is successful, it would allow buyers of airfreight services to recover compensation from the airline cartel. The ESC said it decided to join the class action in order to help those European shippers that believe they have a valid claim against the airlines that have allegedly or already proven to have participated in the price-fixing activities. "The effect of the surcharges illegally agreed and set by some airlines has been to artificially inflate cargo shipment prices to the benefit of those cartel members and to the detriment of the customer which is in clear violation of the law," ESC Secretary General Nicolette van der Jagt said in a statement. The cartel member carriers charged their customers surcharges calculated in nearly identical ways, thus eliminating competition between them. Various carriers have pleaded guilty and were sentenced to pay criminal fines: Lufthansa, Cargolux, British Airways and Korean Air, Qantas Airways and Japan Airlines International (Sources: American Shipper & Air Cargo World) Container Shortage puts U.S. Export Boom in a BoxMany Many U.S. companies hoping to profit from surging exports created by the weak dollar are facing an unexpected hurdle: There arent enough of the big, metal shipping containers that help form the backbone of the global economy.
This has meant lost orders, delays, or a scramble for alternatives, such as costlier air freight. U.S producers cant book containers on a few days notice -- three weeks are needed. Analysts say shipping costs are rising, too. Mr. Damas, the London-based consultant, says the cost of shipping a 40-foot container from the West Coast to China is now $1,500, up at least 20% in the past year. Analysts say that barring a global slowdown that put the brakes on U.S. exports, the problem will dog exporters at least through the end of next year. (Source: Wall Street Journal) China agrees to U.S. Checks of C-TPAT Importers
Europe’s Air Cargo Slows
3PLs thrive despite U.S. illsDespite the ongoing freight recession in the United States, revenues of U.S. third-party logistics service providers grew to $122 billion in 2007, according to the report “U.S. and Global 3PL Financial and Acquisition Results and Projection to 2010” by Armstrong & Associates. Gross revenue grew by 7.4% while net revenue grew 7.2%, the report found. Global revenues grew to $487 billion, driven by expanding growth in Asia. Revenue growth was highest in non-asset transportation management. Overall growth continued a pattern of being more than three times the growth of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product. The growth continues to be driven by companies outsourcing to concentrate on core competences, the need for sophisticated supply chain information technology solutions, and globalization. It is predicted that U.S. 3PL revenues will exceed $150 billion in 2010 after modest growth of 5.5% in 2008 and 7.5% in 2009. International transportation management grew by 9.5%. Domestic transportation management grew 8% with net income margins averaging 13.4%. This includes freight brokerage and related value-added services. (Source: Logistics Management & Journal of Commerce) Uproar over fuel surcharge changeWith the seemingly unstoppable rise in the price of oil, some airlines have raised the ire of forwarders by levying fuel surcharges based on the size of shipments instead of their weight. Forwarders are particularly furious over some airlines policy to calculate the fuel surcharge in the same way they compute rates - converting relatively light-weight bulky cargo by a volume factor. While nobody disputes the volume conversion approach in rate calculations, cargo agents are livid over the extension of the mechanism to fuel surcharges. They argue that they are being gouged, since bulkier cargo does not require higher fuel burn.
On April 7, the fuel surcharge broke through the one-euro-barrier, as Cargolux raised the levy on fuel to 1.05EUR or US$1.64 per kilo. Other carriers, including Northwest and British Airways, pushed up their surcharges to $1.48 a few days earlier, but they are likely to move again.
With or without volume conversion, fuel surcharges are undermining the viability of shipping by air, forwarders warn. It is reckoned that this is adding impetus to the migration from air to ocean. Carriers are trying very hard to make ends meet. The stratospheric price of oil is dealing the airlines a double-whammy. Yields are deteriorating further, and the rise in fuel surcharges is feeding the migration away to slower, less costly modes. (Source: Cargo News Asia) Plans to shut down West Coast Ports May 1
The ILWU locals are permitted to call one stop-work meeting each month to discuss union business. However, the stop-work meetings must be conducted during the second work shift, when cargo activities at most ports are lightest. "Contractually, theyve gone down the right avenue, but we are not going to agree to it," said James McKenna, President of the Pacific Maritime Association. "PMA will respond to the union shortly.” If the ILWU wishes to change the stop-work meeting time, the union must request permission. The ILWU has submitted its request in plenty of time to comply with the waterfront contract, McKenna said. Nevertheless, employers do not want all West Coast ports to be shut down for eight hours during the busy day shift on May 1, he said. (Source: JoC) LA-Long Beach Courting Problems when Growth resumes
U.S. Air Cargo weakens
Three Carriers combine Latin American Services
Hamburg Süd, Aliança and Costa Container Lines will combine and upgrade their current services between the east coast of South America and the north coast of South America, Central America, the U.S. Gulf and the Caribbean, effective March 1. The lines said their combined operation will offer three slings deploying a total of 14 vessels, covering a large combination of ports with improved transit times. Sling 1 will consist of seven 2,200-TEU vessels with the following rotation: Rio Grande, Paranagua, Itajai and Santos, Brazil; Puerto Cabello, Venezuela; Cartagena, Colombia; Veracruz and Altamira, Mexico; Houston; Manzanillo, Panama; Cartagena; Puerto Cabello; La Guaira, Venezuela; Suape, Brazil; Santos; and Rio Grande. Sling 2 will consist of six 1,600-TEU vessels with the following rotation: Santos; Rio de Janeiro; Salvador, Brazil; Puerto Cabello; Cartagena, Santo Tomas de Castilla, Guatemala; Havana; Veracruz; Altamira; Cartagena; Puerto Cabello; and Santos. Sling 3 will consist of one 1,400-TEU vessel, with the following rotation: Cartagena; Manzanillo; Puerto Limon, Costa Rica; Rio Haina, Dominican Republic; and Cartagena. The new services will connect with the extensive transshipment networks operated by Hamburg Süd and Costa Container Lines in the Caribbean as well as comprehensive additional coverage in South America via Alianças connections.(Source: www.joc.com) Shippers issued with Warning as Rate Negotiations begin
Ships withdrawn from the Pacific trades as U.S. import growth vanishes have found work elsewhere and will not be returning in the foreseeable future. That is the message to shippers as lines and their customers prepare for the annual round of contract negotiations. Shippers will not be able to badger lines into accepting lower rates on the grounds that there is excess capacity on the Pacific, APL chief executive Ron Widdows warned. Many have been transferred to the sizzling Asia-Europe trades and, contrary to what US importers might think, “will not be yanked back onto the Pacific” unless financial incentives improve dramatically. It is estimated that member lines have cut transpacific capacity by some 6%, while for the trade overall the decline is between 10%-12%. That has left ship utilization high and lifted confidence among lines that they will secure higher rates in the forthcoming contract renewal season. But top priority is to obtain compensation for soaring fuel costs by incorporating a floating bunker adjustment factor into contracts. NOL revealed this week that average freight rates in the six weeks to February 8 were 17% up on the year at $2,989 per feu. (Source: JoC) |
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